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Tremendous Trio Falter
The top of the Twins' rotation, arguably one of the best in the league, managed to go just 12 ⅔ total innings this weekend, forcing the bullpen to cover the remaining 11 ⅓ (more on those innings later). I wrote last week that the Twins need their top three starters to average six or more innings per start to be World Series contenders; they averaged less than five frames over the opening weekend. Pablo López looked very hittable, allowing eight baserunners and four runs in just five innings. Joe Ryan had a productive start, but it was cut short after just 81 pitches. Bailey Ober’s first start of the season was reminiscent of his first start of last season. For what it's worth, it was later shared that he was dealing with an illness.
Regardless, the Twins cannot afford to have a string of starts like this from the top of their rotation very often this year. Not only is the bullpen already well used ahead of games on each of the next four days, but they weren't able to bail their starters out and get the team any wins. If you thought the Twins were capable of winning 85 games (52.5% win percentage), they're now looking at 83 wins, which probably won’t be enough to make the playoffs. They need to play at an 87-win pace for the remainder of the season to make up the difference.
Offensive Woes
Is it still 2024? The Twins scored six runs all series. They have the second-lowest batting average in baseball, the fourth-lowest walk rate, and the second-lowest WAR. They accrued -0.3 fWAR, edging out only the Colorado Rockies. They had only 12 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and mustered just two doubles (.167 BA), scoring two runs. Moreover, like the rotation, the top three names on the lineup card couldn't set the table for the rest of the lineup. The combination of Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton went 2-for-34 (.058) this weekend, with 9 strikeouts, 3 walks, and a single run batted in.
In one sense, it's not surprising to see more of the same from last season. Aside from Harrison Bader and Ty France, the Twins are bringing back the same frustrating group of hitters who slouched home at the end of 2024. Rather than players developing, we saw Eduaord Julien only get an at-bat in garbage time of Sunday’s game and Jose Miranda batting 8th, including two spots below Mickey Gasper in Saturday’s game. If that doesn't tell you how Twins manager Rocco Baldelli currently views those two, then I don't know what else would. This comes after Austin Martin, who had 233 at-bats last season, couldn't make the team out of spring training after being called a “[future] defensive star” in the outfield. The combination of the top of the lineup being less productive than the top of the rotation, a Royce Lewis injury, and players looking like their 2024 selves made for a familiar, maddening mess. The biggest concern from last season immediately reared its ugly head in 2025, making it hard to be optimistic moving forward.
Bullpen Blow-Ups
How many times did we hear the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball? That very group gave up six earned runs and walked more batters than they struck out. Like the rotation and lineup, the top end of the bullpen didn't come through for the Twins when they needed it. Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax allowed five baserunners and two earned runs in their one combined inning. Meanwhile, Jorge Alcalá didn't register an out. He allowed three runners to reach base and three earned runs, after Louis Varland inherited those runners and allowed them to score. Naturally, the Twins designated Randy Dobnak for assignment on Sunday, after the long man pitched more innings and better than two of the three starters. This all leads to an unexpectedly discombobulated bullpen that now needs to cover four straight games. Even against the White Sox, it's hard to expect more than 10 total innings for Chis Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson in the first two contests of this week, so that relief corps is facing an immediate test.
Of everything that happened this weekend, this is probably the most disappointing. While the starters were far from meeting expectations, López’s and Ober’s starts weren't overly surprising. We know that the offense can be streaky, and that group had the most uncertainty coming into the season. It was the bullpen that was supposed to be lights-out, but they were far from that in this series. Most concerning is Durán, who's coming off a down 2024 season and looking to re-establish himself as one of the league's top relievers. Reliever production is naturally very volatile and can come crashing down at any point. More than anything else, the Twins cannot survive regression from this sector of the team.
Baldelli’s Baffling Decisions
Let me start by saying that I am in no way, shape, or form a Baldelli basher. He's not perfect, but I think he's done a very good job with the rosters he’s been given over the years. I think that him pulling pitchers too early is a figment of your imagination, basically, and I generally agree with the way he manages the game on both sides of the ball. That said, I don't love how he handled some things this weekend. Bader was the team’s best player on Opening Day, and he gets benched for game two—just so Mickey Gasper can get at-bats? Then, Gasper (who had yet to have a big-league hit) proceeded to bat sixth in the batting order, ahead of Willi Castro and Miranda.
With a righty on the mound, Baldelli was worried about match-ups. Sometimes, however, I think talent has to outweigh the perceived match-up edge. There may be an argument that Miranda and Gasper are interchangeable, but Gasper over Castro seems egregious. In the same game, he then cut off a cruising Ryan after just 81 pitches and set to face the bottom third of the Cardinals lineup. I get that it was his first start. I get that he ended last season on the injured list. I still don't get why those things would not allow him to approach 90 pitches after five low-stress innings, especially considering the part of the lineup he was set to face.
Lastly, Baldelli is known for maintenance plans and being cautious with players. Yet, he elected to put Ober on the mound, despite him being well under 100%? Make it make sense. Bluntly put, this weekend was a disaster. To me, that's not overreacting. That's a fact. However, it would be too much to project onto the next 159 games because the first three were atrocious. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. It can't be lost in the first half mile. Whatever you thought of this team ahead of Thursday’s opener should be the same today, give or take.
